Day-to-Day Killings in Mexico Drop 37% In Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Official Data

The average number of daily homicides per month in Mexico has dropped by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by recent government statistics. But, public safety analysts have advised that homicide numbers could fail to signal enhanced countrywide stability.

Marked Drop in Per-Day Figures

Officials reported an average of nearly 55 homicides a day in November compared with roughly 87 when Sheinbaum took the leadership in September of last year. This announcement was shared by the head of the country’s national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The figures in homicides that we have seen in these months is remarkably important,” Sheinbaum stated, noting that in November the least number of homicides were documented for any November in the last decade.

Recent Background and Official Strategy

Fierce organized crime rivalries, alongside the administration's highly militarised efforts to take on the drug gangs, have led to Mexico’s murder numbers soar in the past few years. The figure hit a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the country’s national statistics office.

That gave Mexico a murder rate more than four times greater than the US. From that point, homicides have been on the decrease, declining to 33,550 last year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her public safety approach for an seemingly steeper decline in killings this year.

At a media briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader stated: “There is a strategy, there is tracking of the strategy, and there is specific monitoring town by town in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The key elements of the President's safety strategy include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Increased cooperation between various agencies.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

However, public safety analysts urged caution that focusing solely on homicide statistics to paint a picture of pacification was flawed. This is especially true given the uptick in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be positive news if this was a decrease, but I think we must not just focus on the murder data and say: ‘Well then, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

As reported by the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year compared with the same period last year. But, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain states have increased by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer reliable for assessing the context of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the will to accurately identify and categorize corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the ability to mask violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly means of everyday homicides was additionally problematic because it may mask periods when there were particularly elevated numbers of killings.

“Employing the daily average makes spikes of violent crime invisible,” he concluded.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

An area where the administration can highlight the effectiveness of its safety plan is on arrests and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were detained between October 2024 and November 2025 for major offenses, per government figures. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s highly in political terms beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

Yet despite these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with high bloodshed, with several states in the midst of cartel-fueled violence. Recently there was a prominent killing of a well-liked mayor in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of young people demonstrated in Mexico City and across the nation to show their anger at graft and narco-violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to construct a story of security. Politically it’s extremely potent, socially it’s very problematic,” Vargas said.