Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to sit down with Donald Trump at the presidential resort in Florida on Monday evening. This takes place as anxieties grow that Israel could launch new offensives against enemies in the region, risking plunging the Middle East further into unrest.
The Israeli leader flew from Israel on Sunday, marking his fifth visit to see Trump in the United States this year.
Ceasefire in Gaza and Upcoming Hurdles
A key discussion point will be the truce in Gaza, which in October stopped the devastating two-year war. While the stipulations for an initial phase have been for the most part completed, with Israeli forces withdrawing to new positions and Hamas freeing all living and nearly all of the deceased hostages, enormous challenges confront the implementation of the second phase of the US-brokered 20-point plan.
There are additionally fears that Israel will launch new offensives against Hezbollah in Lebanon, breaking a ceasefire put in place more than a year ago, or against Iran, which it claims of speeding up the development of ballistic missiles in recent months.
“The initial stage is basically over, there’s one remaining Israeli deceased hostage which [Hamas] are having difficulty finding,” said a peace-building expert.
Both sides blame one another of violating the agreement. Hamas has failed to explicitly commit to laying down its weapons and has had notable achievements in asserting its control in the parts of Gaza where the vast majority of population is located. Israel appears reluctant to pull out from the 53% of Gaza it now controls or to allow the free passage of aid into the region.
“The next stage has to begin … and I think the Americans realise that it’s late because Hamas has had too much time to re-establish its presence and this is certainly not a situation that the Americans want to leave in place,” the expert added.
Civilian Cost and Present Conditions
More than 70,000 Palestinians, largely civilians, were killed in Gaza during the war and the vast majority of the territory’s 2.3 million population was uprooted. About 400 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since the October ceasefire, and a great many continue to live in conditions of acute hardship.
In recent weeks, downpours and freezing conditions have compounded the plight in Gaza, where most housing and infrastructure have been severely damaged or razed.
The war was triggered by a unexpected offensive by Hamas in southern Israel in 2023, in which 1,200 people, predominantly civilians, were killed and 250 others captured.
Next Stages and Diplomatic Tensions
Under the next stages of the roadmap, an provisional government made up of independent Palestinian experts is to administer the Palestinian territory instead of Hamas. An global security contingent of thousands of troops is to be sent in.
US officials have hinted the composition of the new authority could be made public in January.
Reports indicate that senior US officials are growing frustrated “as Netanyahu has taken steps to sabotage the fragile ceasefire and impede the peace process”.
“There are growing evidence that the American administration is getting impatient with Netanyahu,” observed a foreign policy specialist. “The question is what it’s going to do about it, because the second phase is right now going stalled.”
Netanyahu's Key Objectives
For Netanyahu, a priority will be convincing Trump to allow Israel to act to prevent Iran from fixing the destruction inflicted on its nuclear programme or expanding its ballistic missile capabilities.
Meanwhile, efforts to secure a defence pact between Israel and Syria have failed to make significant progress and will also be on the agenda at Mar-a-Lago. Israeli officials have also called for more concerted action to disarm Hezbollah.
Netanyahu is confronted with an election within 10 months, and the upcoming polls will influence his agenda. “Everything is connected to [his] staying in power,” an analyst said.
Surveys suggest Netanyahu’s current coalition would face difficulties to form a government if elections were held now. Many voters are frustrated over the failures that led to the 2023 Hamas raid, policies concerning military service exemptions, and a series of scandals.
A close relationship with Trump would reinforce Netanyahu’s appeal among undecided voters and his base. This implies any visible discord between the two leaders is very doubtful, analysts said.
Netanyahu is expected to seek to persuade Trump of the need for Israel to maintain a military technological edge over potential regional enemies. Many Israeli officials were shaken by previous US comments regarding advanced weapons sales to other regional states.
