🔗 Share this article

Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It commonly serves as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. However, it creates an annual argument about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or just the greatest upset.

But this year's field is profoundly unique. The pool of candidates is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions fading and longtime underperformers rising collectively. In an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a typical campaign!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still